…and then there is management…

Posted on | July 27, 2010 | No Comments

The American Energy Innovation Council, headed by business leaders such as Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, and Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, argues that the reason for the lack of progress in areas of renewable energy is the low level of federal funding in this area.

http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Bill-Gates-and-the-Energy-Research-Dilemma.html

I believe that this is true, but I believe that an even more important reason is the lack of “management.” In energy related areas of research there are simply too many different alternative technologies that can, and are, being researched in parallell. Regardless of how much the government increases the funding for technology research, the money needs to be invested in fewer alternatives.

This is also a need that has been identified by the American Energy Innovation Council, but it has not been as widely debated as the need of increased research funding. It is still the first item of the five recommendations listed by the council to establish an independent energy strategy board. What this board needs to do is to narrow down the areas of research to some of the most promising.

Important Contributions

Posted on | July 25, 2010 | No Comments

Some countries make important contributions to Global Energy Transformation by developing free sofwtware and methods for various aspects of renewable energy projects. RET Screen International is an example of one such software that has been developed by the Canadian government.

http://www.retscreen.net/ang/home.php

Now also on-line communities emerge that support users of this sofware, such as the “RET Screen Users International”:

http://retscreen.ning.com/

This is a very promising development and one that needs to be taken after by other countries that could contribute to the development of methods and software for various areas of energy transformation.

In a project that I led two years ago, commissioned by the Swedish Government’s Energy Agency (STEM) we analyzed what can be done by companies in order to improve the energy efficiency of their supply chains. One important finding in this project was that there is a need for a wide range of methods in order to develop practices in this field, indicated by a number of large international companies.

Companies in general meet with their key suppliers for a few hours once or twice every year. During these meetings they need to spend most of the time to discuss key issues related to quality, deliveries, product development or other important aspects. The time left to discuss energy the efficiency of each supplier may be down to a few minutes per meeting. In order to make it possible to substantially reduce the energy consumption of supply chains the energy consumption of each supplier needs to be precisely measured, and goals need to be set that are understood and interpreted in the same way by both customer and supplier. In order for this to be possible for different types of supplier, that produce components for just-in-time delivery or suppliers of company cars, or suppliers of stationery and office equipment, a coherent set of methods need to be developed. This was the conclusion made by large companies like ABB, Volvo and SKF, that really want to contribute as much as possible to this process themselves.

So far, however, nothing has been done in order to start the development of methods and softare in this area. RET Screen International and the user communities that arise around this tool remains one of the few examples of national governments that contribute to the need for free software for the various needs of Global Energy Transformation.

Reality Check

Posted on | July 21, 2010 | No Comments

The Global Energy Transformation Institute has spent the past three years addressing and offering solutions for large-scale energy issues and system inequities. We have before us now a fascinating alignment of technology, events and interest that places this approach in its most formidable position since its conception. Logic is permeating apathy. Minds and attitudes are opening to the possibilities. The conversation has never been more consistent and dynamic.

As you know, I recently had the opportunity to visit Washington, D.C. and speak to and with economists, lobbyists, professors and energy industry leaders. These men and women are some of the most enlightened experts in the area of energy and world dynamics as it applies to energy, and all understood that the current energy management situation is untenable. They also seem poised to want to tackle this in some way that also helps them achieve their individual professional or educational goals. Frankly, I can’t think of a better motivator — and the possibilities in this regard are endless.

The GET Institute intends to continue to lead this dialog and, among other goals, present the necessary connections between these and other interested thought leaders and how further involvement with us benefits them, you. Every situation will be different — just as the remarkable strengths of those interested and involved with us are different. As we continue our dialog, let us also continue to work together to find a powerful and relevant fit for what has to be done; which group, individual or other organization is the best positioned to drive a key, particular aspect of it, and how your participation can be mutually beneficial.

Looking forward, the GET Institute will be identifying and presenting areas where your voluntary participation assures you a role in the Global Energy Transformation. That we serve each others’ needs in this is obvious, but there is room, a necessity, to bring benefit beyond meeting needs. The only way to prove GET works beyond a model is to bring to it economic viability for those who participate.

These are some examples of how participation by these industries and professions can benefit. GET infrastructures won’t and can’t be built without their participation:

• International financial services corporation support. Dams, power plants, transportation infrastructure, power grid improvements and hundred of other projects will need financing. And like adding solar panels to your home, the long-term return will be there for the borrowers. This is a bonanza for an industry eager to redirect after the past few years. Nowhere in recent history has there been a greater incentive for large-scale financing for the right reasons and the strongest bottom line — for everyone involved.
• Economists tracking and training their focus on the most viable energy transformation concepts and projects. Before large corporations, energy concerns, countries and others jump in, they are going to want to know the economic impact for themselves and the markets that affect them.
• Educational Institutions not only prepare the next generation of global energy thinkers but also build GET’s case and direction through research and the presentation of empirical support. Grants in this area have never been more plentiful. Establishing themselves with specific GET curricula, departments, think tanks and educational experts can establish these institutions as leaders in this field and draw other student and faculty minds who may not have previously considered them.
• Corporations including “green leaders.” For those directly involved with the energy and even newer smart energy industries, consider the Global Energy Transportation Institute your partner. These corporations are proof in action that the unworkable current energy model, such as it is, does not have to remain the status quo. And, let’s determine the most effective ways to support and poise them for acceptance and profitability.

There are other areas, of course, and we will continue to provide such insight to our interested colleagues.

Oil spill and carbon emissions not enough

Posted on | July 11, 2010 | No Comments

In The Daily Beast of the 8th of July BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is not enough to create a bipartisan majority in favor of taking America off it’s addiction to oil.

No, neither carbon emissions, nor a major oil spill is likely to be enough.

The fact that will eventually do the job is the global peak in oil production and the following reduction in the oil supply that will make it increasingly difficult to run the global economy in the way that it is now configured with global supply chains. This will cause increasing oil prices and over time there will be shortfalls in the oil supply that will force countries to rapidly embark on policies to reduce the dependence on oil.

This, however, will not be a fast and easy route to oil independence. There is no silver bullet. The measures have to include a combination of development programs for renewable fuels and programs to reduce the need for oil by behavior change and changes in the structure of supply chains and other large scale systems of the economy.

We will have to find the most effective ways of reducing our dependence that will give the biggest bang for the buck.

Even if we do not have large scale programs yet, the people who understand this have to start developing the methods and principles to do this, so that we as a society can “hit the ground running,” when politicians finally get their act together and make the necessary decisions.

Systems Integrators

Posted on | July 8, 2010 | No Comments

One of the areas of interest for GET Institute that did emerge during my trip to the US is the role of systems integrators in the large scale transformation of energy related systems.

This has up until now been largely neglected in the debate, but beside the energy technologies and national strategies for energy transformation, systems integrators will be at the forefront of the transformation.

The Importance of Systems Integrators in Renewable Energy

Posted on | June 24, 2010 | No Comments

I have now spent the best part of a week in Washington DC presenting at the George Washington University, meeting influential people in business and NGOs. From these meetings I have come up with a number of ideas.

One is that there is a need for a framework for national energy strategies. In my book “Global Energy Transformation” I concluded that such strategies are necessary, and provided a number of tools and other resources for the development of such strategies. I am now inclined to go further and say that we need to develop a framework for how national energy strategies could be developed and what they may include.

One other idea that has formed during my visit here is that there is a strong need for companies that integrate energy systems and package and provide services based on renewable energy solutions and energy savings to the public and to companies. Like telephone operators and chains of grocery stores that are “systems integrators” in their respective industries, providing “one-stop shopping” opportunities to customers, systems integrators will become necessary in order to provide, for instance, electric vehicles, charging and battery switch opportunities, and intelligent and cost effective systems solutions to customers. In retail the “systems integrators,” the retail chains and other service providers of the future need to provide groceries and other products to the customer using significantly less energy overall than existing retailers.

So far I have only been able to identify one new systems integrator with the values and systems in place to transform energy related systems on a large scale, and that is the company Better Place.

Better Place offers customers a packaged electric car deal, through which the customer buys the vehicle, but Better Place provides batteries, charging facilities, and the customer pays for the mileage.

http://www.betterplace.com/

Systems integrators do not replace the need for managed change programs, but it makes it much easier for governments to put forward and implement such schemes in their countries, regions or municipalities. Better Place is currently working together with government in a number of countries in order to implement electric car systems rapidly and on a large scale.

The development of a large number of systems integrators in different areas may reduce the time for implementation of new energy technologies and energy efficient production and distribution systems etc by five or more years. These companies will effectively provide a “one-stop shopping” opportunity for politicians and policy makers as well, and one of the key aspects of national energy strategies may be to foster the development of these integrated services in different countries, and spread good service ideas across the globe!

In Good Company

Posted on | June 13, 2010 | No Comments

Last week the high level lobby organization American Energy Innovation announced a suggested plan for large scale energy systems transformation in the United States. Bill Gates and Jeff Immelt are also going to meet with President Obama on Thursday the 17th of June to discuss the issues related to large scale energy transformation.

Among the founders of American Energy Innovation are prominent citizens, such as Bill Gates, Jeff Immelt (CEO of General Electric), John Doerr (Partner at Kleiner Perkins), and a number of other top managers of large US companies.

http://www.americanenergyinnovation.org/

Their plan is based on five cornerstones:

1. Create an independent national energy strategy board.
2. Invest 16 billion USD per year in energy innovation.
3. Create centers of excellence with strong domain expertise.
4. Fund ARPA-E at 1 billion USD per year.
5. Establish and fund a New Energy Challenge Program to build large scale pilot projects.

This is exactly the arguments of “Global Energy Transformation,” applied on the actual situation of the United States, a key player in any Global Energy Transformation program.

Every country needs to form a strong national strategy, such as the one suggested by American Energy Innovation, in order to drive its energy transformation program forward. There also needs to be cooperation between nations in key areas. This will not only help the global transformation of energy systems, it will also contribute to political stability and the aversion of large scale conflicts over the coming decades.

Visit to Washington DC 19th to 29th of June

Posted on | June 8, 2010 | No Comments

I’m going to visit Washington DC 19th to 29th of June for speaking engagements and meetings. I have been invited to speak to faculty of a major university and there will be meetings with a number of key decision makers in international and US energy related organizations and consulting companies.

How Societies Learn – Early Phase

Posted on | June 7, 2010 | No Comments

Books about the peak oil phenomenon have sold in volumes of hundreds of thousands. Some of these have described the tremendous technical challenge of transformation, telling readers that it takes decades to develop and implement new energy technologies and fuels on a large scale. Yet, there is very little debate of how we are going to deal with this seemingly insurmountable issue.

Some of these books have also told us about the perils that may befall society if we fail to act rapidly enough. Still there is little debate of how to transform energy systems rapidly and on a large scale.

In fact, sometimes I get the impression that colleagues and people I meet in business meetings avoid discussing the issue of Global Energy Transformation with me, despite the fact that I have spent the last four years learning and writing about it.

Some may believe that this is because the energy issue is very sensitive. Had it been a less sensitive subject people would have found it easier to talk about it.

Yet, in 1998 I had written a book about e-business, together with my then colleague David Lundberg. It was published by Palgrave Macmillan and the title was, and still is, “The Transparent Market.” We started to write this book in January 1997, delivered the manuscript in November of the Same year. It was published in October of 1998, if I remember correctly.

During the writing of the book we both worked with a major IT and business consulting company, yet none of our colleagues or managers showed any interest in what we were doing. They never asked us what the book was about or what unique contribution we thought we could make to the subject. Around the time of publication we started to work with a small management consulting company and our colleagues there told us that they hired us because they wanted to add IT-competence to the company. Yet they showed little interest in understanding, at the time, how electronic business would impact business strategy.

It was not until the “Internet-boom” around 2000 that people started to take an interest in e-business. Still, few wanted to know what we had written about in this area. Instead, people started to tell us the gospel of e-business of the time, saying that the companies who were the first movers in the electronic marketplace would take over whole industries due to the cost advantage of e-business. They told us other things as well…

In “The Transparent Market,” we took a more analytical approach, arguing that electronic business would change some aspects of business, but not dramatically and over night. Instead, companies would need to learn how to do business electronically, because it had some significant advantages, which I still believe it has by the way…

Regardless of who is right and who is wrong about the details, it is interesting to consider how societies learn. We will not be able to get around the need to transform energy systems on a large scale. We need to deal with this challenge head-on. Still, there is little debate about how we are going to do it. I believe we will experience a similar awakening in this respect, that we did in relation to e-business around 2000. Let’s only hope that the people who get to take the lead in the debate will be able to grasp the subject and take nuanced views on the overall challenge!

I did expect a greater level of interest and response from my Swedish colleagues regarding the importance of this. We have never been known to bury our heads in the sand.

Straightforward and Complex

Posted on | June 3, 2010 | No Comments

The Danish Government has taken away all taxes and fees on electric cars until 2015. This has been done in order to make Denmark a leader in electric car systems. Denmark has set the goal to have 400,000 electric cars on its roads in a few years. With a population of five million this may be possible due to the fact that Denmark is the country in the world with the highest taxes and fees on fossil fuel cars. In the United States President Obama has started a program of nuclear power expansion and now the US Senate is discussing a subsidy of 10,000 dollars on electric cars in order to increase the pace of market penetration, and the Senate is also debating a prize for a company that can come up with a battery with substantially higher capacity than the present.

These are simple and straightforward measures that could rapidly increase the number of electric cars and also increase the volume of non-fossil fuels and electricity in these countries. Why then would there be a need for a large scale program?

First, these measures are important and necessary, but not sufficient. Global oil production, and consumption, amount to some 85 million barrels of oil per day. A growth in electric cars from a very low level will not be sufficient in order to replace oil at the rate that production will be reduced after the global peak in oil production.

A number of things need to be achieved in addition to an expansion of electric cars:

- Increase production capacity of electric cars to rapidly make larger volumes available, and make rapid market penetration possible.

- The implementation of smart systems to control charging of cars and replacement batteries in order to optimize the load on the grids.

- Development and rapid implementation of biofuels and vehicles for biofuels, together with distribution systems for these fuels. This will become necessary in order to make use of the large volumes of biological waste and other biological material that is available to reduce the need to invest in new electricity production.

- Reduce the use of electricity and fuels in industrial production systems and buildings in order to reduce the need overall to invest in new production capacity for electricity and fuels.

- Etc…

Many countries are now taking a number of necessary first steps, using technologies that are available or in the development pipe-line. These will need to be followed by even bigger next-steps aimed at expansion of the base of renewable fuels technologies, the volume of vehicles and the measures to reduce the use of energy for industrial production. This will be a big challenge, and it needs to be managed!

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