Electrification By 2035 - The Hidden Hurdles
Governments are pushing for a rapid shift to electric vehicles and a complete electrification of society by 2035.
But is this even possible?
This video considers the hidden hurdles that threaten to derail this ambitious plan. We'll explore the challenges of expanding the power grid, the massive increase in electricity needed, and the impact on crucial industries.
Prefer to read about it? There is a transcript below the video.
Electrification By 2035: The Hidden Hurdles - Video Transcript
This video is about electrification, and it is the second in a series of videos discussing the challenges of electrification, artificial intelligence, and the large scale change to sustainable society up until 2035.
Governments have decided to drive the electrification of society in a number of areas, but the rapid speed that is planned will not be possible. There is not enough electricity or grid capacity to make even the change to electric vehicles succeed.
In addition to the change to electric vehicles, governments also discuss the electrification of industry to move away from industrial processes fueled by natural gas, the creation of a hydrogen economy, hydrogen requiring large amounts of electricity for its production, and the heating of buildings using electric heat pumps instead of gas, and the number of other changes that will require increasing amounts of electricity.
It takes more than 10 years to build a nuclear reactor, and a similar amount of time will be needed to expand wind and solar generation on a large scale.
More than 100 nuclear reactors or 300,000 wind turbines will be necessary only to fuel all vehicles in Europe with electricity. In addition to this, power grids will have to expand everywhere and at all levels, and they were built 50 years ago and for other purposes.
So large investments will be needed.
For example, high voltage transmission grids carry electricity across nations from power plant to regional grids, and regional grids take electricity from transmission grids to local distribution grids. Local grids, in their turn, will have to distribute large amounts of power to places where little electricity is used at present, such as logistic centers, along motorways and other big roads, to public car parks and to the garages of apartment buildings.
Large investments will become necessary in all parts of grids to make the change to electric vehicles possible.
European power generation will have to expand by almost 40%, and US generation will need to double only to fuel electric vehicles.
In Germany, more electricity will be needed to change base heating to electric heat pumps than the 250 terawatt hours or 40% of present generation that will be needed to charge electric vehicles.
The creation of a hydrogen economy will require very large amounts of electricity. 2 hydrogen fueled steel plants in Northern Sweden will require almost 50 terawatt hours of electricity or 1 third of Sweden's present power generation.
It is not clear how Sweden's power supply will be affected when these two plants will be taken into operation.
In total, the plans for electrification of several large industries and sectors of society will require more than a doubling of the power generation in Europe.
Different countries and regions will be affected in different ways, and changes will not only affect the power industry. The automotive industry, steel production, and many other industries will have to change as well.
To manage the change and drive projects, tens of thousands of individuals will need training to understand the challenges and navigate the perilous waters of large scale change to electrification.
Areas will need to be prioritized, and resources will need to be focused in prioritized areas. Change programs will have to be developed for the areas that will be selected for change.
There is no point having the best possible electric vehicles if we don't have enough electricity to fuel them. And to succeed with electrification, countries will need system thinkers, people who are able to understand the change, prioritize resources, and develop plans for the change. All involved will have to sing from the same hymn sheet, understand the prioritizations, and work towards the same milestones and final goals of the change.
At present, different initiatives counteract each other.
For example, the German ban on nuclear power reduces the opportunity to succeed with electrification and puts the affluence of Germany and Europe at risk.
The 2 Swedish hydrogen fueled steel plants will use up most of Sweden's spare electricity and possibly put the electrification of transportation systems at risk.
Like I've said before about the electrification of transportation, I say it now about the electrification overall. Governments need to take the lead and develop strategies and plans for the electrification.
All the initiatives included within the visions of electric society can't be driven in the present random fashion. Power generation and transmission and distribution grids need to be expanded very rapidly. Other investments, like those in charging infrastructure, would need to be included as well, and more people need to learn about this for the chances of success to improve.
Read my recent book, the severe economic and social consequences of the rapid change to electric vehicles, to learn more about one of the aspects of this video series. Available on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3UQCf0t
I'm in the process of writing my next book, The World in 2035, which will describe the complex challenges facing humanity over the coming decade as the present generations tackle the complex issues of implementing a number of new technologies.
If you like this video and want to watch the rest of this series please subscribe to my YouTube channel or join my email community below.